Six Nations – Final Round Preview
Results last weekend have set up what is likely to be an extremely exciting final day of this year’s Six Nations Championship, with three teams in with a realistic chance of winning the trophy. Let’s take a closer look at this weekend’s deciding matches!
France’s impressive win in Ireland means that no team can complete a Grand Slam and the top three teams have all lost one game each. With the top three teams facing those currently in the bottom three, it is France who have the advantage, knowing that a win for them over Scotland will ensure they win the title, no matter what the other two teams in contention, England and Ireland, manage on the final day.
The table after four match days is as follows:
- France – 16 pts
- England – 16 pts
- Ireland – 14 pts
- Scotland – 11 pts
- Italy – 4 pts
- Wales – 3 pts
The fixtures for the last round:
15:15 – Italy vs Ireland
17:45 – Wales vs England
21:00 – France vs Scotland
Fabien Galthie’s side are now in pole position to claim the title, if they can beat Scotland in the final round. However, England and Ireland both remain in contention with Scotland still, technically, in the running too. Last weekend’s standout result was without a doubt France’s dominant win in Dublin. The final score of 42-27 shows how well they played and most rugby fans cannot really understand how England managed to beat them a few weeks ago. The fact that this was meant to be a final celebration in the Aviva stadium for Irish legends Peter O’Mahoney, Conor Murray and Cian Healy was another factory that was meant to push Ireland to victory, but the French were having none of it. The only real negative was the loss of their star player Antoine Dupont to a serious injury, which looks set to sideline him for around six months. The second match of the day saw Scotland notch up an important home victory over a struggling Wales side, although this tournament will go down as another disappointment. The Sunday match saw England put in a dominant performance at Twickenham against Italy, who crumbled in the second half.
Here is a look at the teams heading into the last matchday, which team needs what to win or end the tournament with a flourish.
France
France moved onto 16 points after securing a remarkable bonus point win against Ireland. If they were to repeat a five point win against Scotland next Saturday, they would move onto an unassailable 21 points. However, if they won without a bonus point, England could match them on 20 points, but Les Bleus’ superior points difference means they would still be likely to claim the title with that being a differentiating factor, rather than head-to-head results, which would have been in England’s favour. A defeat, or draw, against Scotland would open the door to both England and Ireland, though.
England
After beating Italy in a bonus point win, England now need to beat Wales in the same fashion to give themselves the best possible chance of winning the tournament. If they did that, their total would be 20 points, which Ireland cannot reach and France could only reach with victory against Scotland. England will therefore be cheering on Gregor Townsend’s side.
A win against Wales without a bonus point would take England to 19 points. That could be a high enough total to win the tournament, but Ireland are also expected to end on 19 points with a bonus point win against Italy. Points difference would then decide the title. France could also end up on 19 points if they were to draw with Scotland and score four tries. England plays earlier in the day than France on ‘Super Saturday’ and therefore can pile the pressure on Galthie’s team.
Ireland
Ireland were favourites to claim the title, and a Grand Slam, prior to defeat at the hands of France. The best possible outcome for Ireland now is that they reach 19 points with a four try win against Italy, and that England lose to Wales and France lose to Scotland. Simon Easterby’s team are up first next weekend, so can put the heat on both England and France, but they are now relying on other sides slipping up.
Scotland
For Scotland to win, a miracle is required. But, nevertheless, mathematically they are still in with a shot. If Scotland were to beat France with a bonus point, they would reach a total of 16 points. France are already there, but could remain on that number if no losing bonus points were secured. Scotland would then also need to overturn the 103 points difference between themselves and Les Bleus in the process. A 52 point win would do the job.
Italy
A bit of a strange tournament for Italy, as usual they have played some good quality rugby but they have also been on the end of some heavy defeats, with their solitary win so far being a home match against Wales on a rainy afternoon in the Stadio Olimpico. The -77 points difference is something that their coaching staff will certainly be concerned about, if they do lose matches they need to try to contain the scoreboard so as to perhaps pick up some bonus points. The 73 points conceded against France at home was simply too much and England had not managed such a big win against any top tier opposition for a long time prior to last weekend. This time around they face an Ireland side that will be looking to end their tournament on a high in Rome, so the Italians will be hoping to put up a sterner defence.
Wales
Another poor tournament for Wales, so much so that they decided to part ways with head coach Warren Gatland midway through the tournament. Performances have improved since then, largely due to the new management recalling some experienced players but they are still winless with a points difference of -65. This final match of the tournament at home to England gives them one final hope of ending on a high. The Welsh team and fans always seem to find a way to raise themselves against their biggest rivals England and the hope is to somehow put in a performance that is strong enough to end England’s hopes of winning the title.
We are in for a fascinating day of Rugby and a fitting end to this year’s Six Nations tournament. France or Ireland were strong favourites to win this year but an England win wasn’t expected. France hold all the cards though, they know they have what it takes to beat Scotland and the most likely result by some distance is France lifting the trophy, something that they will deserve given the quality of performances we have seen on the pitch over recent weeks, both as a team and individually.
Last Updated: 12.03.2025
